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- And Then There Were Four!
And Then There Were Four!
Nov 9, 2024 | Edition #95
👋 Dear Motorheads,
We’ve cheered, we’ve cried, we’ve cursed—no emotion was left untouched this year. And after 36 weeks of endless drama, it has finally boiled down to this moment.
The field is waiting to churn up the eventual winner from this year’s championship 4. But before you kick back and get ready for the season finale this Sunday, the Lucky Dog has brought you a special edition.
Today, we take a step back and look at the journey of all 4 of our finalists, analyzing who most deserves (or not deserve) the 2024 title.
👑 Can Tyler Reddick Claim His First Cup Crown?
🙌 William Byron Must Make Mr. H Proud on the 40th
💪 Could Ryan Blaney Pull Off a Jimmie Johnson?
📚 Joey Logano One Win Away From Rewriting History
📖 Reading Into Redd-eemer’s Case
Along the Title, 23XI’s Legacy Is on the Line Too
Tyler Reddick is on the cusp of making history! You see… #45 team’s win in Phoenix would make Reddick a first-time champ while marking 23XI Racing’s debut NASCAR title in what has only been their fourth year in the sport. And let's not forget, a morale boost like that can work wonders in the foreground of their ongoing legal clash against NASCAR.
The 28-year-old, however, seems locked in. Talking to NBC, he said “They’ve got a team of people that are taking care of [the lawsuit]. I’m taking care of what I can do as the driver.” And with ‘His Airness’ rooting for his success, maybe it's time for Reddick to ‘make it personal.’
After all, his journey is full of those relatable and personal stories that we NASCAR fans love to hear. Remember 2018, when he won his second Xfinity Series championship and with it, the right to name his unborn son? While his wife, Alexa, wanted to name their little boy, Ryker, Reddick had his heart set on Beau. And as the California native claimed the Xfinity title, Beau Reddick became part of the NASCAR lore.
This weekend is as much about Tyler bringing home the win for himself and his team as it is about showing Beau what his dad can do. He's led more laps than any other driver in the Championship 4 and has consistently performed under pressure. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Phoenix Raceway has been a coin-flip track for Reddick.
He’s had moments of brilliance in the Desert before, finishing third in back-to-back spring races in 2022 and 2023. Earlier this year, he led a race-high 68 laps here and finished 10th. However, his average finish is 17.8 on the racetrack, and he has never bagged a win at Phoenix, not even in the lower tiers.
Also, Reddick has never won a Cup race on a track shorter than 1.5 miles. And his average finish in the playoffs is 19.9, compared to an 11.2 average finish from the regular season. That makes Reddick the lowest-averaging driver in the post-season out of all the other Championship 4 contenders. But again, stats can only tell us so much.
Reddick's 2024 Season Rundown
Wins: 3 (Talladega, Michigan, Homestead)
Top 5s: 12
Top 10s: 20
Poles: 3
Laps Led: 597
Regular Season Average Finish: 11.2
Fun fact: A championship for Reddick would make him the first Toyota-backed titleholder since Kyle Busch in 2019.
🏁 Lucky Dog’s Quick Poll 🏁
If You Could Bring One Eliminated Driver Back Into the Running, Who Would It Be? |
✍️ Tale of the Heroic Hendrick
HMS’ 40th Year Marks Byron’s Big Test
William Byron is the last man standing for Team Chevy and Rick Hendrick. But can the guy bring home the title for all their efforts? Well, the odds are certainly in his favor. For starters, the Phoenix Zoo’s resident Sumatran tiger, Raja (which translates to ‘King’), chose Willy B as his championship pick in a ceremony. And who are we to argue with a tiger?
Besides, Byron's consistency throughout the playoffs has been nothing short of impressive. In the last 9 races, he’s averaged a running position of 7.48, with an average finish of 9.33. And if that’s not enough, Byron hasn’t finished a race below 6th place since the Round of 12 opener at Kansas. None of his other three championship threats have averaged a running position better than 11th and an average finish better than 15th in that duration.
At Phoenix, Byron is no stranger to success. He won there in March 2023 and has shown convincing performances on similar tracks for the longest time. He has even run the most laps inside the top 5 in the Next Gen car at Phoenix than any other driver—1,058 in total. A track record like that proves he has what it takes to be competitive in the grand finale. That’s not to mention his three top-fives and seven top-10 finishes in only 13 appearances at the track. Plus, Byron is just one of two Championship 4 contenders to have won at Phoenix in this Gen-7 car.
But… there is another side to this coin. Despite all the positives, there’s a lingering question: Can he win this time? Sure, his stats are solid. But Byron hasn't won a race since April. We’re talking about a 27-race winless streak that could weigh heavily on his confidence. And while he’s had tons of top-10s at Phoenix, he’s led only around 171 laps in all those races. If we’re talking about Byron’s chances, we’ve got to mention Ryan Blaney. These two have a bit of a rivalry brewing. The tension between them has been palpable on track. And here they are, two of the four drivers battling it out for the title at Phoenix.
Byron's 2024 Season Rundown:
Wins: 3 (Daytona, COTA, Martinsville)
Top 5s: 12
Top 10s: 20
Poles: 1
Laps Led: 338
Regular Season Average Finish: 13.2
Fun Fact: Willy B could make history this weekend by clinching Hendrick Motorsports' 15th Cup Series title in their 40th anniversary.
🥇 What Could Deter the Defending Champ
Blaney Will Have No Friends On Sunday
Ryan Blaney will have a big bullseye on his back at Phoenix. After a rollercoaster playoff run that almost ended after a near-miss at Homestead, he bounced back with a vital win last weekend. And now, he’s ready to defend his title. If he pulls it off, he might become the first driver to win consecutive championships in the Cup Series since Jimmie Johnson. That’s a feat that’s been elusive for 14 years. But is the #12 driver up for the challenge?
Now, he's got the speed, he's got the team, and he's got that championship pedigree. But every other guy wants to be champion as much as Blaney. And it will sure sting when that title comes off his own back. For Blaney, though, the stakes extend beyond just personal glory. As he put it, the goal is simple: “How do you make Roger proud?” The ‘Captain’ took a chance on him when Blaney was all but 20 years old. Winning for Team Penske, a team that means “everything” to Blaney, tops his priority list. “You can’t buy [Roger Penske] anything,” said Blaney. “You’ve got to win him championships.” So if he pulls it off in Phoenix, he’ll be gifting his team their third consecutive Bill France Cup.
But Blaney faces some stiff competition in his quest, even from the likes of his own Team Penske ally, Joey Logano. The dynamics between Blaney and Logano will be something to watch out for, with both competing with the same resources for similar accolades. Now, Blaney has proven he can handle pressure. His first championship came last year with an eerily similar Martinsville-to-Phoenix run. Hence, that experience will be a crucial asset as he returns to defend the title. Plus, Blaney’s led more laps in the Next Gen car at Phoenix than anyone else. He has even kept up a steady streak of top-fives in every race here since 2022.
Now, let's not get carried away, though. Blaney's had 7 DNFs this season, most out of any other championship contender. So he cannot afford even a single slipup, or the 8th could become the costliest this Sunday.
Blaney's 2024 Season Rundown:
Wins: 3 (Iowa, Pocono, Martinsville)
Top 5s: 11
Top 10s: 17
Poles: 1
Laps Led: 555
Average Finish: 15.6
Fun Fact: Should the tables turn in his favor, Ryan Blaney will also secure a spot in history as the first champion to repeat in the elimination era.
🔎 Studying Patterns of the Valiant Veteran
Will the ‘Even-Year’ Magic Last One More Race?
The "Even-Year Magician" is on course to clinch his third NASCAR Cup Series championship this weekend! With six final 4 appearances and two titles under his belt (2018 and 2022)—all in even-numbered years—a win would make Joey Logano the 10th driver in NASCAR history to secure three or more championships. That would put him on an elite list that includes names like Cale Yarborough, Lee Petty, and Tony Stewart.
Despite a challenging season that saw him finish outside the top 20 in 42.8% of races, there’s no doubt that the veteran turned up when it mattered the most and secured the shot for his third title. A late surge, fueled by crucial wins at Atlanta and Vegas, inched him through the playoffs.
However, his journey has had its fair share of controversy. He almost didn’t make it past the Round of 12. Then, Alex Bowman's disqualification at the ROVAL opened the door for him even wider. We feel Logano’s ability to rise to the occasion in pressure-cooker situations, sometimes a little too lucky, is almost freakish. But there is a pattern to his magic. In both his championship-winning seasons, he won less than five races and then clinched the title in the last race of the year.
For Phoenix, Logano’s advantage lies in his familiarity with 1-mile tracks and the extensive two-week prep time the #22 team has enjoyed, thanks to their early entry. As the Winningest Playoff driver at the racetrack (with three wins), he even claimed his 2022 championship here, leading 187 laps from the pole.
With Ryan Blaney battling to become a multi-time champion, Team Penske holds the unique advantage of having two cars in contention on Sunday. But this double-edged sword could also prove to be a disadvantage if both drivers end up having to fight each other for the ultimate prize. Regardless, a win for either Penske car at Phoenix would tie them with Joe Gibbs Racing for the fifth-most titles in NASCAR history. So those two will have to play their cards just right, or they could let potential history slip away from their very fingers.
Logano’s 2024 Season Rundown:
Wins: 3 (Nashville, Atlanta, Las Vegas)
Top 5s: 12
Top 10s: 20
Poles: 3
Laps Led: 597
Average Finish: 13.4
Fun Fact: If Logano does the unthinkable, the 34-year-old will become just the fifth driver in NASCAR history to win three championships under the age of 35.
🏆 Lucky Dog’s Prediction
After crunching the numbers and analyzing the stats, the Lucky Dog has made his pick for Phoenix. So here’s our winning prediction for Sunday's showdown!
Do you agree?
📰 More Stories to Check Out
4th Manufacturer Ready to Enter NASCAR - Full Story
Denny Hamlin Shuts Down “Race Manipulation” Allegations With Major Revelation - Full Story
“Ruined My Enjoyment” – Dale Jr Reveals Disdain From Manufacturers Compromising His Race - Full Story
William Byron Left Fuming as NASCAR Renders Kyle Larson the Top Spot Post Martinsville Caution - Full Story
Ryan Blaney Unhappy With Best Friend Ruining His Martinsville Victory - Full Story
✨ Featured Comment
Sharing his thoughts on whether a non-championship driver will win at Phoenix, Super Fan - Randall Giroux put across an interesting opinion...
Lucky Dog's Take: Well... calling the final 4 'not the fastest' is a tad bit harsh. But we surely understand the sentiment.
A lot of the high rollers, who the Lucky Dog was cheering for during mid-season, are no longer in the running.
But what can you do? That's just NASCAR (and its confusing playoff system).
We know you too have some great views to share. So participate in our polls and the next 'featured comment' could very well be yours.
You can even write back to us by clicking here.
That’s it for today, folks! We’ll look to knock on your inbox soon with more interesting stories!
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