Kyle Larson Pulls Off the Biggest Upset of 2025

November 03, 2025 | Edition #446

👋 Hey, Motorhead!

From the intense battle between Byron and Hamlin to the different strategies in motion, the Cup Series finale had it all. For a moment, it looked like this was indeed Hamlin’s year after all. But then came the late-race caution.
The script flipped during the money stop and the two-lap shootout. Out of nowhere, Kyle Larson found himself in a position to win the whole deal, and win he did. Let us unwrap the fine details from the blockbuster Phoenix finale without any further ado.

Stage 1: Denny Hamlin had control of Stage 1 until William Byron got the better of him with eight laps to go and bagged the win.

Stage 2: A spin by Ty Dillon brought out the yellow late in the second stage, and Hamlin was able to hold off his rivals.

Final Stage: An overtime finish saw Kyle Larson gain an advantage over Hamlin on pit road and win the championship without leading a single lap.

The battle for the championship was between the #11 of Hamlin and the #24 of William Byron. The HMS driver was the one who managed to get past him in the first stage and also had the long-run speed to maintain track position. However, on a crucial restart with 47 to go, it was clear Hamlin was out of reach for his rivals.

All of a sudden, Byron found himself battling against Ryan Blaney, and the #11 Toyota Camry opened up a three-second gap. All Hamlin needed was four laps to complete his NASCAR story. But there was a late twist in this championship tale, the #24 car had a flat tire, and it brought out the caution.

Still, Hamlin had track position and could easily maintain his lead for the overtime finish. What happened next on pit road left everyone in shock. Larson’s team opted for a two-tire call, while the #11 team had a long stop with a four-tire call. The veteran JGR driver fell from 1st to 10th, and then came the race-changing moment.

Remember, the Championship 4 drivers didn’t need to win the race; all they had to do was finish better than their rival. With two laps to go, Larson restarted fifth on the outside lane. For a moment, it felt like he was going to get swarmed by the Ford cars running up front, but on the final lap, he made a big move.

Coming off the front stretch, Larson got clear and found himself third, and Hamlin was nowhere to be found in his rearview mirror. But the job was far from done; another wreck by Larson or a flat tire would have handed the win to the JGR driver. He kept his cool, focused on the last lap, and brought his car across the start-finish line. Here’s a glimpse of the dramatic final laps that crowned Larson the 2025 Cup champion.

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It is worth noting that Denny Hamlin led 208 laps in the championship race after starting from the pole. However, the ride wasn’t smooth at all. Mechanical gremlins have plagued the #11 team a lot this year, and Phoenix was no different. Hamlin was nervous on the radio as he complained about issues with the clutch on his race car.

The situation was so bad that Hamlin reported that the clutch was on the verge of not engaging. But the team was able to find a temporary solution to see out the rest of the race. At this moment, it is hard to judge if mechanical issues kept Hamlin from winning the title, but they were certainly a factor in Sunday’s race.

Luck hasn’t been kind to Denny, and just when he thought he had it covered, the script flipped. With just four laps to go, Byron’s flat tire came at the worst possible time for Hamlin. This allowed Larson to make a gamble on pit road, while the #11 team tried to play it safe, a decision that turned south on them really quickly.

The bad memories of the 2014 finale at Homestead-Miami flashed right in front of Hamlin fans. Back then, his team decided to stay out to maintain the lead, but Kevin Harvick, on fresh tires, got past him to win the trophy. And this time around, when the #11 team opted for tires, they lost out on track position against Larson.

While the decision by Chris Gayle raised some eyebrows after the race, he stood by his call. “I think four tires was the right call. We just didn’t get clear on the bottom—and I thought for a split second we were. And the 5 got the outside run, and then it was just boxed in with chaos a little bit.”

The other big deciding factor that might have kept Hamlin from achieving his glory is the controversial playoff format. Is it fair for a driver as consistent as Hamlin to have his fate decided in a one-race showdown? A freak caution or a split-second decision can knock a driver out of the championship seat. Well, that is exactly what happened in Phoenix. It’s about time NASCAR finds a fix to this championship format.


Was the Four-Tire Call by Chris Gayle the Right One for the Overtime Finish?

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Our readers on Lucky Dog on Track are passionate race fans, and your constant feedback and support have made this championship weekend truly worthwhile. Keeping up with the sentiment after an emotional Cup Series event, Lucky Dog shared a poll in the post-race edition. And the question was simple: Between the two (Larson and Hamlin), who is the more deserving champion?

We had nearly 600 votes in a matter of a few hours and some noteworthy comments as well. Emotions clearly got the better of this reader who banked on Hamlin as their champion pick. “Larson is the most undeserving champion in the sport I have seen because Hamlin dominated that race. Not even a Hamlin fan, but that is a story for another day!”

This sentiment resonated with another reader, who couldn’t help but highlight the root cause of Hamlin’s heartbreak. “I don’t like the man personally, but he should be the champion this year. Consistency, talent, and determination—yet the ridiculous playoff situation stole the championship from him.”

Not everyone was on the same page, though. There were Larson faithful who made their arguments for why he was the deserving champion, and rightly so. “It’s about winning, not about feelings.”

Meanwhile, others had more subtle takes backing the HMS star driver. “That’s the way racing goes. I feel for DH, but even a blind hog finds an acorn occasionally. You have a great run going, bro—enjoy your success. Nothing to regret!”

But you wonder if Hamlin will get a similar opportunity to win the championship again. One comment in particular summed up the mood and feeling perfectly—and a lot of race fans will relate to it. “It’s not called racing for nothing.”

NASCAR as a sport is just different. It takes you to the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in a matter of a few laps. And this is what makes NASCAR so special.


One of the biggest drawbacks to the one-race finale is that the winners aren’t appreciated as they should be. While Kyle Larson and the #5 team were celebrating after crossing the finish line in third place, it was Ryan Blaney who took the checkered flag.

Now, Team Penske has pretty much nailed their setups to win the fall Phoenix race. Blaney, in particular, has been really strong at this track. In the Next Gen era, the driver of the #12 car has finished with three runner-up finishes, and last night, he finally parked his car in Victory Lane.

For three years now, Penske has been dominating the Cup Series championship, but this streak ended when none of their cars made it to the Final 4. While ending the 2025 campaign on a winning note was good for Blaney, he still felt left out for not being able to compete for the championship:

“I’m just really proud of the whole group, and it’s cool to end it in Victory Lane. It’s a shame we weren’t in the Championship 4. Congrats to Kyle and that whole team. I’m happy for this team that we could end it the best way we could. You just go try to win the race,” Blaney said after the race.

Now, it can be a bittersweet feeling for a driver to win a race where the attention isn’t going to be on them but the champion. However, for Blaney, this win was equally enjoyable, and he shared his team’s thought process in the post-race media session.

Not just Blaney, his teammate Joey Logano also had a strong finish. He ended the race P4, which marked his third top-five finish in the fall race at Phoenix. Logano has two wins at this racetrack, which helped him win the title in 2022 and 2024. It will be interesting to see how Team Penske bounces back after this setback. And yeah, there’s no Phoenix showdown next year.


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